Today, the Dow closed UP 423 points. This is the first time the market has moved more than 400 points in each of four consecutive days. It is somewhat exciting but even more exhausting!
So, does it give us any indication of where the market is going?
There are three related dynamics playing out in the market right now. First, the U.S. economy is growing slowly, as is typical after a financial crisis. It is possible the economy could be pushed back into recession, but the market may well have already priced that into current price levels.
Second, the technical characteristics of the U.S. stock market present another dynamic. Such volatile market moves usually indicate a change in direction. It was announced today that insiders are buying eight times as many shares as they are selling. This is very bullish. In addition, share buybacks have not been this high in three years. This is also very bullish. However, the volatility index (VIX) is still close to 40, indicating continuing volatility, which suggests no net change in the market . . . yet.
Third, the headline risk of the European financial system is jerking our market violently. Investors are drawing unreasonable comparisons with the U.S. financial system in 2008. It might get ugly there but not as ugly as it was here. This is the wild card. Tell me the headlines out of Europe tomorrow, and I'll tell you how the market will perform.
Once we get back to the fundamentals of the U.S. stock market reflecting the U.S. economy, albeit with careful regard for the world economy, I will be more excited and less exhausted.
