Friday, January 27, 2012

Advance Estimate of GDP for Q4

On the last Friday of each month following a quarter-end, we get the advance estimate of GDP growth in the past quarter.  For the third quarter, the final estimate was 1.8%.  For the fourth quarter, which was just announced this morning, GDP growth was 2.8%.  While that was a substantial improvement, the market was expecting 3% . . . thus, a disappointment.

Closer examination reveals the shortfall was in government spending, which is not altogether a bad thing.  While it is not yet clear, the suspicion is that it was mostly Defense spending, which is not altogether a good thing.  Still, with the U.S. spending more on defense than the next twelve largest spenders combined, maybe it is time.

Nike says "Just Do It." 

I say "Remember the Nike Swoosh," as that is the shape of our economic recovery, i.e., a long slow recovery . . . but definitely a recovery.