Ruchir Sharma is a high-powered, globe-trotting executive with Morgan Stanley, in charge of Emerging Market Equities and Global Macro. I just finished his new book, Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles.
He points out that China, Russia, and India are yesterday's news and showing all the familiar signs of slowing. The future lies with such nations as Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey and Korea, and he makes a convincing case for each. Surprisingly, he also foresees two countries of Eastern Europe as real growth prospects, i.e., Poland and the Czech Republic.
While it was worth my time reading it, I would not recommend it to others. Despite a pleasant writing style full of interesting anecdotes, the book lacks organization and statistical detail. It is more of a travelogue by an investment manager, writing about what he did during his summer vacation.
Still, there were some great nuggets, that are worth repeating. such as:
India has more in common with Brazil than it does with China, as both India & Brazil are "high-context" societies that are family-oriented, "colorful, noisy, quick to make promises that can always be relied on."
China pursues "growth at any cost," while Brazil pursues "stability at any cost." (I disagree with his conclusion on this.)
China may have embraced capitalism, but they have not embraced the bottom-line discipline.
"Supporting a welfare state is a rich man's disease."
A problem for breakout nations is the "trilemma" of managing exchange rates, interest rates, and the flow of foreign money in/out of the country. (Amen!)
"CNBC Culture" is the obsession with the normal zigs & zags of the market and should be avoided.
Ten families in Mexico own one-third of their stock market, which is dangerous.
The richest man in India has a 27-story home with 400,000 square feet.
The Cambodian stock market opened i n July of last year and still doesn't have a single company listed on it.
The belief that commodity prices will continue to rise as the traditional BRIC nations continue to grow is as dangerous as the technology bubble.
My take is that it is imprudent for a U.S. based investment manager to take a bet on any particular company in some remote part of the world. That's an ideal example of where mutual funds make sense for the average investor.
He points out that China, Russia, and India are yesterday's news and showing all the familiar signs of slowing. The future lies with such nations as Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey and Korea, and he makes a convincing case for each. Surprisingly, he also foresees two countries of Eastern Europe as real growth prospects, i.e., Poland and the Czech Republic.
While it was worth my time reading it, I would not recommend it to others. Despite a pleasant writing style full of interesting anecdotes, the book lacks organization and statistical detail. It is more of a travelogue by an investment manager, writing about what he did during his summer vacation.
Still, there were some great nuggets, that are worth repeating. such as:
India has more in common with Brazil than it does with China, as both India & Brazil are "high-context" societies that are family-oriented, "colorful, noisy, quick to make promises that can always be relied on."
China pursues "growth at any cost," while Brazil pursues "stability at any cost." (I disagree with his conclusion on this.)
China may have embraced capitalism, but they have not embraced the bottom-line discipline.
"Supporting a welfare state is a rich man's disease."
A problem for breakout nations is the "trilemma" of managing exchange rates, interest rates, and the flow of foreign money in/out of the country. (Amen!)
"CNBC Culture" is the obsession with the normal zigs & zags of the market and should be avoided.
Ten families in Mexico own one-third of their stock market, which is dangerous.
The richest man in India has a 27-story home with 400,000 square feet.
The Cambodian stock market opened i n July of last year and still doesn't have a single company listed on it.
The belief that commodity prices will continue to rise as the traditional BRIC nations continue to grow is as dangerous as the technology bubble.
My take is that it is imprudent for a U.S. based investment manager to take a bet on any particular company in some remote part of the world. That's an ideal example of where mutual funds make sense for the average investor.
