Monday, January 5, 2015

Not Your Parents Old 1-2

No, it is not a left jab to the face, followed by right roundhouse to the ear.

Instead, it is two pieces of bad information, both of which raise uncertainty, something which stock markets just hate.  First, over the weekend, Germany called the bluff of Greece by saying the European Union would be just fine if Greece exited, the so-called "Grexit."  Did Germany mean that?  Did that mean they really expect the Grexit?  Were they just offering us a pat on the head, because they really expect the EU to fall apart?  So much uncertainty . . .

Two, the bottom fell out of oil, dropping below $50.  Maybe, it is not just a simple case -- of Russia cheating on their sales allocation and instead selling all the oil they can -- of what is driving up the supply of oil.  What if . . . maybe, it is a case of dropping demand, because global economies are stalling.  Maybe, the world is actually getting weaker economically and nobody knows it yet?  So much uncertainty . . .

Amidst all this uncertainty, let us not forget this time last January when the stock market dropped right at the beginning, rallied through March, when it dipped again but then rallied until October when it dropped almost 10%, just before rallying into year-end with a 10.4% increase over year-end 2013.   That worked out just fine, didn't it?

R - E - L - A - X . . . .