Forgetting that GDP growth in the first quarter has averaged a miserable 0.5% since 2010, the market was still expecting a robust 248 thousand jobs to be created last month. However, today's Jobs Report indicated a mere 126 thousand jobs were created. I guess all those people expecting the higher number of jobs spent the month of March on the beach in south Florida and didn't realize how lousy the weather was up here?
Today's report also lowered the estimate of jobs created in January and February by 69 thousand, remembering that weather wasn't exactly great either. The jobs juggernaut has apparently come to a halt?
But, something else is happening. Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% last month and were expected to increase 0.2%. Instead, they increased 0.3% -- a nice surprise. Also, the percentage of the working-age population that is actually working or looking for work (AKA the Labor Force Participation Rate) increased from 62.5% to 62.7%. In addition, the "oil patch" only lost 12 thousand jobs last month, substantially less than expected. Most importantly, the U-6 level of employment, which includes those working part-time because they cannot find full-time work, dropped to 10.9% -- the lowest since August of 2008!
We may be seeing the U.S. jobs market changing from that of a recovering economy to that of a healthy economy. Let us pray!
The immediate impact was that the euro soared, as investors guessed the U.S. economy is really not that much better than the European economy. However, there is no way that the increase in the value of the euro can be sustained in the face of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Also, the futures for the stock market suggest a modest sell-off when the market opens on Monday.
Over the longer-term, this reduces pressure on the data-dependent Fed to begin increasing interest rates this year. The stock market will realize this before Monday, and I expect it will react more positively than the futures currently indicate.
Today's report also lowered the estimate of jobs created in January and February by 69 thousand, remembering that weather wasn't exactly great either. The jobs juggernaut has apparently come to a halt?
But, something else is happening. Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% last month and were expected to increase 0.2%. Instead, they increased 0.3% -- a nice surprise. Also, the percentage of the working-age population that is actually working or looking for work (AKA the Labor Force Participation Rate) increased from 62.5% to 62.7%. In addition, the "oil patch" only lost 12 thousand jobs last month, substantially less than expected. Most importantly, the U-6 level of employment, which includes those working part-time because they cannot find full-time work, dropped to 10.9% -- the lowest since August of 2008!
We may be seeing the U.S. jobs market changing from that of a recovering economy to that of a healthy economy. Let us pray!
The immediate impact was that the euro soared, as investors guessed the U.S. economy is really not that much better than the European economy. However, there is no way that the increase in the value of the euro can be sustained in the face of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Also, the futures for the stock market suggest a modest sell-off when the market opens on Monday.
Over the longer-term, this reduces pressure on the data-dependent Fed to begin increasing interest rates this year. The stock market will realize this before Monday, and I expect it will react more positively than the futures currently indicate.
