There are bears and bulls, of course. However, my experience is that there are fewer bears and bulls than expected but more perma-bears and perma-bulls than expected. In other words, some observers never change their view, e.g., they always think the stock market will rise or always think the market will fall. Their opinion never changes. They either see the glass as half full or half empty.
During the forty years I've observed the stock market, there has never been a single day that someone wasn't predicting a crash, like Stansberry or Schiff today. They are usually deeply steeped in Austrian economics and often recommend gold. They are perma-bears.
In contrast, Warren Buffett and Jeremy Siegel are often described as perma-bulls. Buffet feels history is a reasonable guide to the future. After all, the American economy has always gotten better. Just think long-term. My favorite pundit is Siegel of Wharton, who just wrote that we are over-reacting to the Fed raising interest rates in the near future. He wrote:
As far as equities are concerned, it is very rare for the bull market to end on the first, or even the second rate hike. After the 2001-2002 recession, the Fed began raising the funds rate in July 2004, but stocks continued to rise for another 27 months. After the 1990-1991 recession, the Fed began to hike rates in early February 1992. After a brief pause, we witnessed the start of one of the strongest bull markets in stocks in history. In my opinion, stock investors are far more concerned about a rebound of earnings, which is the likely outcome of a stronger economy, than about a 25 bp hike in the short rate.
My point is that "Wall Street is always climbing a wall-of-worry." That wall today is a pending interest rate hike by the Fed. Buffett would argue that is a sign of an improving economy. Siegel would argue the stock market is over-reacting. Indeed!
During the forty years I've observed the stock market, there has never been a single day that someone wasn't predicting a crash, like Stansberry or Schiff today. They are usually deeply steeped in Austrian economics and often recommend gold. They are perma-bears.
In contrast, Warren Buffett and Jeremy Siegel are often described as perma-bulls. Buffet feels history is a reasonable guide to the future. After all, the American economy has always gotten better. Just think long-term. My favorite pundit is Siegel of Wharton, who just wrote that we are over-reacting to the Fed raising interest rates in the near future. He wrote:
As far as equities are concerned, it is very rare for the bull market to end on the first, or even the second rate hike. After the 2001-2002 recession, the Fed began raising the funds rate in July 2004, but stocks continued to rise for another 27 months. After the 1990-1991 recession, the Fed began to hike rates in early February 1992. After a brief pause, we witnessed the start of one of the strongest bull markets in stocks in history. In my opinion, stock investors are far more concerned about a rebound of earnings, which is the likely outcome of a stronger economy, than about a 25 bp hike in the short rate.
My point is that "Wall Street is always climbing a wall-of-worry." That wall today is a pending interest rate hike by the Fed. Buffett would argue that is a sign of an improving economy. Siegel would argue the stock market is over-reacting. Indeed!
