Last week, I wrote that the stock market would continue dancing as long as the band keeps playing the music -- meaning there are few worrisome near-term danger signals to the stock market from either the economic or valuation standpoint, as long as the Fed remains "accommodative."
A friend and faithful reader told me that was inconsistent with my oft-stated concerns about the debt level causing a "black swan event." By definition, timing such an event is unknowable. I still expect a "black swan event" or a "Minsky Moment" when there will be a sudden financial collapse . . . but not in the foreseeable future. The only defense against the unknowable is acting fast when it starts. And, how do you know when it starts? When derivatives start defaulting . . .
There has never been a day in American history when there was not an upcoming recession. There is always a recession out there somewhere . . . but not today.
In the meantime, may I have this dance?
A friend and faithful reader told me that was inconsistent with my oft-stated concerns about the debt level causing a "black swan event." By definition, timing such an event is unknowable. I still expect a "black swan event" or a "Minsky Moment" when there will be a sudden financial collapse . . . but not in the foreseeable future. The only defense against the unknowable is acting fast when it starts. And, how do you know when it starts? When derivatives start defaulting . . .
There has never been a day in American history when there was not an upcoming recession. There is always a recession out there somewhere . . . but not today.
In the meantime, may I have this dance?
