As a long-time member of the National Association of Business Economics, I follow their surveys closely. In their latest, it is clear they see no prospect of recession during the next two years. Here are some thoughts:
Look at the sharp rise in earnings from the third quarter (Q3) of this year to the next quarter. Obviously, other members are more optimistic than I am, and I hope they are right.
Also, notice the declining growth in earnings while sales remains relatively flat. That is a normal behavior for later stages of the business cycle. But, we are not near the end of the business cycle.
Look at the sharp rise in earnings from the third quarter (Q3) of this year to the next quarter. Obviously, other members are more optimistic than I am, and I hope they are right.
Also, notice the declining growth in earnings while sales remains relatively flat. That is a normal behavior for later stages of the business cycle. But, we are not near the end of the business cycle.
