Friday, December 8, 2017

Fond Reunion

Absence makes the heart grow fonder, even for economic data.  While the monthly jobs report is not the most instructive economic report, it has long been the most popular and has the most short-term impact on the stock market.

Today's report continued a long string of good reports, with 228 thousand new jobs being created last month, more than the 195 thousand that pundits expected.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, near a seventeen year low.  Average hourly earnings inched up 0.2% last month and 2.5% over the last year, which is not bad.  The Labor Force Participation Rate remained 62.7%, which is unchanged.  The only negative was that the U-6 level or long-term unemployed inched up to 8.0%.

Because of the dislocations caused by the terrible hurricane season, the monthly jobs report for the last three months have been tainted and confusing.  Finally, we got a clean, traditional jobs report, and it was a good one.

Normally, a good report decreases the probability of the Fed increasing interest rates, but I don't think that is true this time.  The Fed is committed to removing monetary stimulus, because the economy is strong and doesn't need it.

So, why do we need a tax cut if the economy is already strong enough that the Fed is raising rates?