Monday, March 21, 2011

Where's My Party Hat?

Did you feel the tide going out? It is the tide of uncertainty that swept over the market for the last few weeks. Markets don't like uncertainty!

There is less uncertainty about Khaddafi; he's toast! There is less uncertainty about Japan; it will take $235 billion over 5 years to rebuild, according to the World Bank. There is still some uncertainty about the possibility of nuclear disaster in Japan, but it also is receding.

Two months ago, I predicted the market needed to pull back 4-8 percent for awhile and give the economy a chance to catch up. We did go down 8 percent, and it is time for the bulls to run awhile. Of course, it won't be long before the bulls get too far ahead of the economy again and need to rest.

Right now, the futures market is predicting the Dow will open up about 120 points. If the Japanese reactor becomes more de-stabilized, the Dow will turn ugly again. But, for now, put your party hat on!