Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Risk-Adjusted Returns

Suppose you buy a stock and sell it one year later for a 6% profit, including dividends.  Was that a good investment or a bad investment?  The answer is that it depends . . . on how much risk you took.

If you took a lot of risk, it was probably a bad investment.  If you took minimal risk, it was probably a good investment.

If you bought a large cap value stock producing consumer stables, paying dividends for 40 years, like Altria, it was probably a good investment.  If you bought a start-up tech company, you deserved a much higher return, making it a bad investment.

America is definitely in a better place with the new budget deal.  The spending curve has been bent a small amount, which is a good thing.  The conversation has changed, which is a great thing.  But, was it worth the risk we took?