Friday, October 28, 2011

So Far, So Good

When I turned on Bloomberg at 4 AM, I expected to see something about the European financial crisis, as usual.  Instead, it was a discussion about the earnings of some company.  After breathless 24/7 coverage of the crisis for months, I found this discussion of earnings to be refreshing.  (Maybe, we'll get back to economics as well?  I miss writing about economics!)

As expected, the devilish details of the plan are coming out and causing stomach pain to many.  The futures market indicates the Dow will lose about 50 points at the 9:30 AM opening.  After the enormous 339 point relief rally yesterday . . . who really cares about 50 points this morning?

Over the weekend, more details will emerge and likely cause more pain.  I expect the market to be down early next week.

The most worrisome development so far is something that didn't happen . . . interest rates on Italian sovereign debt have not fallen.  This suggests the market may believe the Greece problem may be under control but are still not sure about Italy.  Still, a template for the Euro zone has been created.

I remain much more optimistic than I was last week, but I'm watching those devilish details closely.