Every quarter, the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) conducts a random sample survey of its members. Despite the fact that I've never been one of the 50 economists called to participate, I still enjoy reading their quarterly predictions, which were released today.
Job growth averaged 254 thousand new jobs each month from December thru February but fell to an average of 134,500 for March and April. They predict the average for 2012 will be 200 thousand new jobs per month or 2.4 million jobs all year, which would be a fairly decent year. Still, they don't expect the unemployment rate to drop below 8.1% before year-end but dropping to 7.6% by the end of 2013.
Their estimate of GDP remained unchanged at 2.3% this year and 2.7% next year. Despite the flare-up in Europe, this estimate was not changed, which surprises me.
The most surprising prediction was that home prices would got UP(?) this year, by a tiny 0.5% but still UP! The residential real estate market has been a huge drag on the economy. Any improvement there will help the rest of the economy.
Maybe, they'll call me for the next quarterly survey, and I will probably pull the averages down.
Job growth averaged 254 thousand new jobs each month from December thru February but fell to an average of 134,500 for March and April. They predict the average for 2012 will be 200 thousand new jobs per month or 2.4 million jobs all year, which would be a fairly decent year. Still, they don't expect the unemployment rate to drop below 8.1% before year-end but dropping to 7.6% by the end of 2013.
Their estimate of GDP remained unchanged at 2.3% this year and 2.7% next year. Despite the flare-up in Europe, this estimate was not changed, which surprises me.
The most surprising prediction was that home prices would got UP(?) this year, by a tiny 0.5% but still UP! The residential real estate market has been a huge drag on the economy. Any improvement there will help the rest of the economy.
Maybe, they'll call me for the next quarterly survey, and I will probably pull the averages down.
