Friday, August 2, 2013

A "Technical" Ceiling ?

When enough people believe something will happen, that is often enough reason to make it happen.  That is called a "self-fulfilling prophecy."

I am not a fan of technical analysis (using graphs and charts to find meaning) in the stock market.  Comparing technical analysis to fundamental analysis is like comparing voodoo economics with classical economics.  But, I know a great many investment strategists use technical analysis, which forces me to pay attention to any prophecy in their graphs and charts.  Take a look at this one:

Chart of the Day

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the Dow has bounced off the ceiling twice.  Technicians would suggest that the bull market would be over if it bounced off the ceiling a third time.  Yesterday was the third attempt, and it appears it did NOT bounce.  It easily shot thru the ceiling, suggesting we are now in a new bull run.

Today's Jobs Report was disappointing, but Dow futures are only down slightly.  If the Dow closes flat or only slightly down today, the technicians will be partying this weekend.  I suppose I should be happy if they are???