Monday, January 4, 2016

Trading Day #1 of 2016

If you think it was crazy for American northerners and American southerners to be killing each other, what do you think about Sunni Muslims and Shiite Muslims killing each other?  At least, the Americans were fighting over an economic system, albeit an immoral agrarian system based on slavery.  But, the Muslims are fighting over the methodology and hierarchy of worshiping Allah.

Like, who cares!  Oh, yeah, the Muslims care . . .

But, how do we stay out of their religious civil war -- militarily and financially?

Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia executed a Shiite cleric.  Iran promptly over-reacted.  (Saudi Arabia is predominately Sunni, while Iran is predominantly Shiite.)  This increased uncertainty is largely responsible for the lousy opening of the American stock market this morning.  The futures market indicates a drop of over 300 points in the Dow at the open.  Because there is no realistic possibility that either nation will invade the other, this crisis will pass, eventually.  In the meantime, American portfolios and 401(k)'s will suffer, due to religious differences in the Middle East.  On the other hand, this could be a historic buying opportunity!

The interesting aspect of this is that a major flare-up between the two leading oil-producing nations in the Middle East a decade ago would have caused a major upward spike in oil prices.  Yet, it is only up about a modest 1-2%.  That shows just how over-supplied the world markets are with oil.  That is proof that the futures market is reacting to the lousy Shanghai market, as well as the Muslim civil war.  More on this later . . .