Saturday, October 1, 2016

With All Due Respect

The huge investment bank of Goldman Sachs is the most respected bank on Wall Street, by Goldman Sachs anyway.  Regardless, I do respect the soothsayers in their research department.  Here are some of their latest forecasts:

1.  GDP growth in the U.S. will increase from 1.5% this year to 2.0% next year.
2.  Japan's will increase from 0.6% to 1.0%, while Europe and England continue to shrink slowly.
3.  China will continue shifting to a service economy, with GDP growth dropping slowly.
4.  Other emerging markets will grow quickly from 5.1% this year to 5.8% next year.
5.  The S&P 500 will be unchanged over the next 3 months and up only 2.2% over 12 months.
6.  European stocks will increase 4.0% over the next twelve months.
7.  Interest rates will increase about 60 basis points over the next year.
8,  The dollar will appreciate about 10% against the euro and 6% against the pound. 
9.  Oil will increase about 18% over the next 12 months to $57/barrel.
10. Gold and copper will drop 6.1% and 13.5% respectively.

I think they see the world economy going into slow-motion for the foreseeable future.  They are not forecasting any serious recession . . . nor boom times, which is hard to dispute.

Investors should ask themselves about their risk-reward perspective.  Assuming Goldman Sachs is right and the world is slowing down, has market risk gone down . . . or up?