Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Bye-Bye Bump

I predicted that the market would continue rallying until the inauguration, which is typically a time of good feelings, before reality spoiled the party.  Instead the party was spoiled at least two weeks early.  Maybe, it was just catch-up time for a party that go ahead of itself.  Maybe, it was the realization that Congress will hug the tar-baby of Obamacare, before fixing the Internal Revenue Code or stimulating the economy with infrastructure spending.  Or, maybe, the typical good feelings surrounding the peaceful transfer of power are already exhausted?

The President-Elect enters the office with the lowest approval rating in memory -- only 40%.  I also never recall a President or President-Elect saying the dollar is too strong.  While I agree with that, I've never heard a US leader actually say it.  It is a clear call to the Fed to stop raising interest rates.  It is also a clear message to the Chinese that we can and will cheapen their our currency, just as the Chinese do.  So much for letting "the market" decide on the currency exchange rates?

The "Trump Bump" is over slightly sooner-than-expected.  Now, it is back to normal . . . darn it!