Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Chicken or Egg?

Along the lines of which of "the chicken or the egg," does partisan identity precede or follow economic identity?  Are all Keynesian economists Democrats?  Are all Democrats also Keynesians?  Are all Austrian-school economists establishment Republicans?  Are all establishment Republicans Austrian.  Are all Supply-side economists closet Tea Party members?

Of course, the key word is "all."  There are exceptions to each of those broadly-true generalizations but not nearly enough.

Mark Zandi is one of my favorite Keynesian economists.  Backing Clinton last summer, he predicted a long, severe recession if Trump was elected.  Yesterday, he said . . . "never mind."

Now, he feels the economy will continue to roll along with a modest 2% GDP growth rate, despite the weak start in Q1.  He thinks job creation will continue at about 200 thousand monthly.  He sees no sign of recession in the foreseeable future.  Is this solid Democrat agreeing with Republicans?  Who knows, maybe he will evolve into the Austrian-school of economics??

I agree with his comments that the economy is not as good as the pro-Trump crowd expects, nor as bad as the anti-Trump crowd expects.  Hyperbole belongs in political discussions, not economic ones.