Thursday, January 4, 2018

Marathon Bulls

The bulls have been running on Wall Street for nine years.  They should be tired, but they apparently are not. 

Generally speaking, as long as profits continue to increase, the stock market should continue to increase.  Decreasing tax expense means increased profit (unless the money is allocated to other expenses like labor).  In addition, the global economic recovery continues, further increasing profit.

You'll recall that the stock market depends on three legs, i.e., economic, financial, and political.  The economic data, both here & abroad, continues to be strong.  The financial data continues to be strong.  The political leg is the weak one, but that doesn't seem to matter, at least not since the 2016 election.  The stock market is either ignoring the poisonous political atmosphere or is developing an immunity.  My take is that the economic and financial data are so strong that the bulls can run on two legs, at least for awhile -- until the 2018 election comes into focus.

I correctly predicted a Trump victory in 2016 would produce a sudden plunge but quick recovery.  It is still too early to make any predictions about the 2018 election, other than that the bulls will need to rest before then.  A 10% correction or drop in the stock market would be good for us in the long run!

Bring it on!