Easily, the most anticipated economic report each month is the Jobs Report, which was issued this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While much anticipated, it is becoming less meaningful.
Historically, the Jobs Report for January is the most difficult to measure and most often corrected the following month. Today's report showed only 36 thousand jobs were created last month, far less than the 121 thousand jobs created in December and the estimated 138 thousand jobs that were expected for January. Some of this disappointment is due to the severe weather. The construction sector lost 32 thousand jobs, which was almost certainly weather-related. Transportation lost 38 thousand jobs, which was probably weather-related. Another problem with the report in January is that firms often wait until their new budget year to hire people, which has an upward bias on jobs. That doesn't seem to be the case this year.
At the same time, the rate of unemployment dropped from 9.4% to 9.0%. This seeming contradiction that fewer jobs were created at the same time the rate of unemployment decreased . . . means the labor force has gotten smaller. In other words, people have given up, which is not good.
I know of no economists who expected such a small number of jobs. A recurrent complaint by economists is that the tired old methodology of the Jobs Report fails to capture those former workers who are now self-employed, which is thought to be substantial but nobody knows.
An interesting "second derivative" effect of this report is that long-term interest rates rose, with 10-year Treasury bonds the highest since last May. With unemployment still so weak, it is less likely the Fed will end QE2 and more likely the Fed will do a third phase of quantitative easing, which is undoubtedly inflationary. Long-term interest rates react to inflation expectations much more than short-term rates.
My take is that the uselessness of this month's Jobs Report will only increase anticipation of next month's Report. Hopefully, it will be more meaningful.
