Back in the dark days of March in 2009 when the S&P reached its low of 666, many questioned the American system of Free Enterprise. Since then, the S&P has DOUBLED! That's right, if you had invested 100% of your portfolio into the S&P then, you would have a 100% profit now.
So, how come you haven't seen any big parties or celebrations? That's because we measure success against the all time high-water mark of 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007. After a long, painful three year recovery, we are still down 15%. Obviously, the Global Financial Crisis was not your garden-variety recession.
We are now twenty-three months into a bull market. The average is 103 markets, which means we have plenty of room to run. Usually, the deeper the recession, the longer the bull market that follows it. However, I cannot over-emphasize how different this last recession was. We remain vulnerable to "heart attacks" -- those sudden irrational dramatic drops like last year's "Flash Crash." Until the international financial system stabilizes, the average duration of past bull markets is a lousy predictor of the future.
This weekend, the Finance Ministers of the G-20 are meeting, laying the groundwork for their chiefs-of-state to meet later. This could be a big step forward in stabilizing the international financial system, or at least I hope so . . .
