You don't have to like a person to respect them. The same is true for companies. I don't like Goldman Sachs, believing they have the same ethical blind spot of most stockbrokers, only worse. Nonetheless, I do respect their research capabilities.
I just finished studying their expectations for the second half of this year. In no particular order, here are some of the more interesting points:
1. They have reduced their year-end S&P forecast from 1500 to 1450. Still, that is way above the current level of 1325. I agree the market should be up at year-end but struggle to believe it will be a 9.4% increase.
2. The dollar will continue to lose value. Amen!
3. They don't expect the rate unemployment to drop below the current level of 9.2% this year and 8.8% next year. I pray they're wrong!
4. "U.S. bond valuations remain unattractive." Couldn't have said that better myself.
5. Oil will reach $115 by year-end 2011 and $127 by year-end 2012. And, we'll still be dependent on Arab oil, if not more so.
