With the surprisingly strong ADP employment report this morning, good earnings from several retail companies, and hopeful comments on the budget negotiations, it is not surprising the bull was loose on Wall Street today, for 7th time in 8 days. With the all-important monthly DOL "Jobs Report" due out tomorrow morning, my thoughts should be entirely focused on that. Yet, they are not. My portfolios are conservatively positioned if that report is bad.
What has been weighing on my mind is a phone call I received on Tuesday afternoon, while on my way to spend a few days with family in bucolic St Michaels, Maryland. The caller was very agitated that Casey Anthony had been found not guilty. While I was vaguely aware of some child murder soap opera in Orlando, I was taken back by the caller's conviction that this verdict proves America is doomed. The caller wanted to know if they should sell everything and just sit on cash for now. On Wednesday, I got a similar call from another client.
Enjoying the next few days with family, I wondered why they shared no similar fear. They were barely aware of the Casey Anthony story. I know some people just seem genetically inclined to see a glass as either half-full or half-empty. But, there is more to it . . .
I know some people don't have enough curiosity to stay informed. But, being informed is not the same thing as being fearful. There must be more to it . . .
I know some people manage their exposure to negativity. Once they receive their daily ration of negative news/opinions/thoughts, they consciously turn their attention elsewhere. But, how did they know they could manage their own emotional state-of-mind? Who gave them that permisssion?
My wife thinks people over-react to things they understand when they don't know enough to react to strange, arcane things that frighten them, such as the ISM report or Beige Book Report or labor force participation rate cycles. Maybe, but I suspect there is still more to it.
For me, I cannot answer these questions. These are not the type of questions economists are trained to answer. But, they are the type of questions that keep me awake at night. There must be more to it . . .
