Since the stock market is obviously losing steam with the continuing European crisis, a client asked me if we should just sell everything and stay in cash until "it" is over.
There have been numerous academic studies that show "market timing" is a poor strategy for investment managment, which requires perfect knowledge about the future. Most investors prefer "buy and hold" as a strategy. After all, America has seen worse problems many times and always succeeded in overcoming them. However, I believe a far better strategy than either of those is to simply increase cash gradually as anxiety/fear increases.
In addition, I don't think it is ever wise to be 100% out of stocks. Nobody can assure me that the European heads of state might not walk onto a stage at any moment and announce "the" agreement, in which case the Dow would probably jump a thousand points, setting the stage for another bull market. Besides, the U.S. economy is doing better than the U.S. stock market, stongly suggesting upside potential!
The European crisis is not going away anytime soon. Like most parts of the Christian world, little will be accomplished in Europe for the rest of this month. This looks like one of those rare years when we do not get a "Santa Claus Rally." Still, January is historically the best month of the year for the stock market.
Keep the faith!
There have been numerous academic studies that show "market timing" is a poor strategy for investment managment, which requires perfect knowledge about the future. Most investors prefer "buy and hold" as a strategy. After all, America has seen worse problems many times and always succeeded in overcoming them. However, I believe a far better strategy than either of those is to simply increase cash gradually as anxiety/fear increases.
In addition, I don't think it is ever wise to be 100% out of stocks. Nobody can assure me that the European heads of state might not walk onto a stage at any moment and announce "the" agreement, in which case the Dow would probably jump a thousand points, setting the stage for another bull market. Besides, the U.S. economy is doing better than the U.S. stock market, stongly suggesting upside potential!
The European crisis is not going away anytime soon. Like most parts of the Christian world, little will be accomplished in Europe for the rest of this month. This looks like one of those rare years when we do not get a "Santa Claus Rally." Still, January is historically the best month of the year for the stock market.
Keep the faith!
