Monday, December 12, 2011

The Sky Is Now Less Cloudy . . . Too Bad About the Stock Market

The market has spoken.  The verdict is in.  Last Friday's agreement to resolve the European credit crisis is just another disappointment, kicking the can down the road . . again!  At this hour, the Dow appears ready to lose about 80 points at the open.  Investors are fleeing the Euro, driving up the value of the dollar, which temporarily drives down the value of gold.

Well . . . duh??  Did anybody expect a silver bullet, where 27 nations agree on every detail upfront?  The good news is that the nose-dive has ended.  On Friday, those nations who use the Euro began the long process of surrendering their fiscal sovereignty.  That does not mean financial disaster is no longer possible, but the arc has been changed.

If nothing else was accomplished, Friday's agreement gives political cover for the ECB to begin quantitative easing, which would help Europe at this point.

The sky may still fall, but at least it is more blue . . . the macro-environment has indeed improved!