The President has announced new airstrikes in Iraq. The ceasefire in Gaza limped to an end. Putin has launched economic sanctions against the West. And, the authorities has declared the Ebola outbreak in Africa is now out-of-control. As a result, portfolios worldwide will suffer, for awhile.
But, something worrisome did NOT happen! Just like Sherlock Holmes taught us, a "dog that doesn't bark" can be telling the real story.
One of the sure signs that a stock market is" hot" is a high level of mergers & acquisitions (M&A). So far this year, global M&A has been $2.2 trillion. At this time last year, the level was only $1.3 trillion. This year will probably be the best year for M&A since 2007, just before the global financial crisis. In fact, one finds M&A highs are invariably indicators of both economic recessions AND financial crisis. (Remember: fear a financial crisis, not a garden-variety economic recession!) An economic recession will be preceded by several large corporate acquisitions that do NOT happen. An financial recession is predicted by the failure to finance one or more large corporate acquisitions.
Last week, a surprising number of M&A deals collapsed, and my crisis radar came out. The bad news may be that the deals fell apart, but the good news is that they did NOT fall apart due to a lack of financing.
And, the rates on Argentina's credit default swaps have stabilized, another quiet dog that is good news for investors.
So, as you worry, be thankful for the quiet dogs and think about them as you fall sleep!
But, something worrisome did NOT happen! Just like Sherlock Holmes taught us, a "dog that doesn't bark" can be telling the real story.
One of the sure signs that a stock market is" hot" is a high level of mergers & acquisitions (M&A). So far this year, global M&A has been $2.2 trillion. At this time last year, the level was only $1.3 trillion. This year will probably be the best year for M&A since 2007, just before the global financial crisis. In fact, one finds M&A highs are invariably indicators of both economic recessions AND financial crisis. (Remember: fear a financial crisis, not a garden-variety economic recession!) An economic recession will be preceded by several large corporate acquisitions that do NOT happen. An financial recession is predicted by the failure to finance one or more large corporate acquisitions.
Last week, a surprising number of M&A deals collapsed, and my crisis radar came out. The bad news may be that the deals fell apart, but the good news is that they did NOT fall apart due to a lack of financing.
And, the rates on Argentina's credit default swaps have stabilized, another quiet dog that is good news for investors.
So, as you worry, be thankful for the quiet dogs and think about them as you fall sleep!
