Some people might describe Goldman Sachs as the most highly self-respected company in America. I would argue their economics research department actually deserves to be respected. Here are some of their latest predictions:
1. GDP growth in the second quarter was a whopping 4.0%. For the full year, it will only be 2.9%, due to the lousy first quarter. Next year, full-year GDP growth will be a respectable 3.1%.
2. Unemployment will drop to 5.9% by year-end 2014 and 5.4% by year-end 2015. This is very close to full employment, which is normally described as 5% unemployment.
3. Inflation remains nominal, with core CPI growing a mere 2.2% next year.
4. The benchmark 10-year-Treasury rate will increase about half a percent before year-end 2014 and another half a percentage point next year. (I disagree with this.)
5. Corporate profits per share will rise 7.8% next year.
6. The S&P 500 will end this year at 2,050 or up another 3%. Next year, it will end at 2,100 or another 2.5%, which is a significant slowdown in growth.
7. Oil will continue to fall both this year and next year.
8. Gold will fall to $1,050 per ounce by year-end 2014 but bounce back to $1,200 by year-end 2015.
9. The dollar should continue to strengthen.
10. Small-cap stocks are very attractive now.
There is no mention of distant fires or bubbles building. It is a bullish set of predictions. Maybe, it is safe to go to the beach after all, but watch out for the "great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity," as Goldman Sachs was described in Rolling Stone magazine.
1. GDP growth in the second quarter was a whopping 4.0%. For the full year, it will only be 2.9%, due to the lousy first quarter. Next year, full-year GDP growth will be a respectable 3.1%.
2. Unemployment will drop to 5.9% by year-end 2014 and 5.4% by year-end 2015. This is very close to full employment, which is normally described as 5% unemployment.
3. Inflation remains nominal, with core CPI growing a mere 2.2% next year.
4. The benchmark 10-year-Treasury rate will increase about half a percent before year-end 2014 and another half a percentage point next year. (I disagree with this.)
5. Corporate profits per share will rise 7.8% next year.
6. The S&P 500 will end this year at 2,050 or up another 3%. Next year, it will end at 2,100 or another 2.5%, which is a significant slowdown in growth.
7. Oil will continue to fall both this year and next year.
8. Gold will fall to $1,050 per ounce by year-end 2014 but bounce back to $1,200 by year-end 2015.
9. The dollar should continue to strengthen.
10. Small-cap stocks are very attractive now.
There is no mention of distant fires or bubbles building. It is a bullish set of predictions. Maybe, it is safe to go to the beach after all, but watch out for the "great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity," as Goldman Sachs was described in Rolling Stone magazine.
