Analysts who work for firms that sell stocks are often called "sell-side" analysts. Not surprising, they always have stock they recommend that YOU buy. Investment managers are usually "buy-side" analysts and are bearish as often as bullish. Normally, you listen to buy-side analysts and take sell-side analysts more lightly.
Goldman Sachs is both a seller of stocks, as well as an investment manager. They tend to be bullish but can also turn bearish. And, I do respect their investment research during both the ups and the downs in the stock market.
Their latest projections are this:
1. They have studied recoveries in 13 developed nations since 1970 and have found that recoveries from housing busts are longer and slower than other recoveries. Therefore, this anemic recovery which is now 62 months long still has plenty of recovery left in it.
2. This is a jaw-dropper here -- the Euro will fall to parity, or equal one Euro for each dollar, by the end of 2017. Companies that sell to the Eurozone will become un-competitive price-wise, but it will get cheaper for Americans to vacation in Europe. That should also bring a good deal of investment dollars into the U.S. from abroad, which is good for the stock market.
3. The tendency to think the sky will fall when the Fed starts raising interest rates is misplaced. "Equity returns initially stagnate over the first few months of a policy-rate-hike cycle . . . then quickly resume their upward trejectory." And, those interest rate increases are not expected until 2015.
4. The unemployment rate will fall to 5.4% by the end of next year.
5. Inflation remains modest through the end of 2015.
6. The S&P 500 will end this year at 2,050. It is about 1,955 now.
7. Commodities like gold and oil will continue to trend lower, primarily to the strengthening dollar.
So, does that make Goldman Sachs a bear or a bull or a . . . just another "vampire squid," as they were described in Rolling Stone magazine?
Goldman Sachs is both a seller of stocks, as well as an investment manager. They tend to be bullish but can also turn bearish. And, I do respect their investment research during both the ups and the downs in the stock market.
Their latest projections are this:
1. They have studied recoveries in 13 developed nations since 1970 and have found that recoveries from housing busts are longer and slower than other recoveries. Therefore, this anemic recovery which is now 62 months long still has plenty of recovery left in it.
2. This is a jaw-dropper here -- the Euro will fall to parity, or equal one Euro for each dollar, by the end of 2017. Companies that sell to the Eurozone will become un-competitive price-wise, but it will get cheaper for Americans to vacation in Europe. That should also bring a good deal of investment dollars into the U.S. from abroad, which is good for the stock market.
3. The tendency to think the sky will fall when the Fed starts raising interest rates is misplaced. "Equity returns initially stagnate over the first few months of a policy-rate-hike cycle . . . then quickly resume their upward trejectory." And, those interest rate increases are not expected until 2015.
4. The unemployment rate will fall to 5.4% by the end of next year.
5. Inflation remains modest through the end of 2015.
6. The S&P 500 will end this year at 2,050. It is about 1,955 now.
7. Commodities like gold and oil will continue to trend lower, primarily to the strengthening dollar.
So, does that make Goldman Sachs a bear or a bull or a . . . just another "vampire squid," as they were described in Rolling Stone magazine?
