The excellent Research Department of the once-excellent Goldman Sachs has released their latest projections. Here is a sampling:
1. The U.S. economy is the economic engine of the world again. (Agreed!)
2. Our economic recovery still has room to run. (Agreed!)
3. GDP growth next year was reduced to 3.1%, which is still good.
4. Unemployment will end 2015 at only 5.4%, which would be great.
5. Inflation this year & next year will remain less than 2%. (Agreed!)
6. Ten-year-Treasury yields will end this year at 3.0% and next at 3.5%. (Disagree!)
7. The S&P 500 will end this year at 2,050 and next year at 2,100.
8. Gold will end this year at $1,050 but rise to $1,200 next year. (It's about $1,240 now.)
9. The dollar will continue to appreciate through next year.
I do wish they would discuss how long monetary policy can propel this country alone, with no help from fiscal policy. However long that period is, it is getting shorter every day.
1. The U.S. economy is the economic engine of the world again. (Agreed!)
2. Our economic recovery still has room to run. (Agreed!)
3. GDP growth next year was reduced to 3.1%, which is still good.
4. Unemployment will end 2015 at only 5.4%, which would be great.
5. Inflation this year & next year will remain less than 2%. (Agreed!)
6. Ten-year-Treasury yields will end this year at 3.0% and next at 3.5%. (Disagree!)
7. The S&P 500 will end this year at 2,050 and next year at 2,100.
8. Gold will end this year at $1,050 but rise to $1,200 next year. (It's about $1,240 now.)
9. The dollar will continue to appreciate through next year.
I do wish they would discuss how long monetary policy can propel this country alone, with no help from fiscal policy. However long that period is, it is getting shorter every day.
