Friday, November 7, 2014

5.8%

That is the headline -- 5.8% unemployment rate last month!  While that's certainly good, it is not enough of the story.  It is a good story!

Total jobs produced last month were 214 thousand, of which 209 thousand were in the private sector, leaving only 5 thousand government jobs being produced.  Certainly, no "make-work" job creation!

The labor force participation rate increased slightly from 62.7% to 62.8%.  This is the percentage of the labor force that is either employed or looking for a job.  As the job market improves, those who have given-up slowly return to the workforce.  Think about this:  only 2 out of 3 people between ages 18 and 65 are employed or looking for a job.  One out of 3 either work in the home, are students, or are just too lazy to work in a candy store?  Some are simply psychologically dysfunctional.

Happily, the U-6 level of unemployment dropped from 11.8% last month to 11.5% now.  It was 13.8% this time last year.  This measure includes the 5.8% who are unemployed plus those people who are working part-time but want to work full-time.  It has been the most stubborn measure of employment to recover from the Great Recession.

There is no hiding from the fact that the job market continues to improve at a good, sustainable rate.  Nonetheless, a survey last month showed that 62% of those surveyed thought the economy was either somewhat poor or very poor!

I just don't understand that 62%.  Do you?