My late mother taught me to never say anything bad about somebody, because everybody has some good in them. I have found the "good" in Goldman Sachs. It is their excellent research department! Here are a few of their latest observations:
1. The S&P will rise 8.1% to 2150 over the next twelve months. Asian stock markets will rise 12.0%, and European will rise 14.2% during that time.
2. The fear that a Chinese slowdown is a risk to global growth is "over-stated." They estimate China's GDP growth at 6.8% this year and 6.4% next year, compared to the U.S. at 2.5% this year and 2.4% next year.
3. The dollar will continue to strengthen over the next twelve months -- 4.9% against the pound and a whopping 15.3% against the Euro. However, the yen will appreciate 7.4% against the dollar.
4. Oil will rise 23.9% over the next twelve months, and gold will fall another 7.3%.
5. The Fed will increase interest rates in December, not September.
In addition, they took an interesting look at the relationship between "politics and portfolios," finding the stock market enjoys a "glad it's over" bounce after each presidential election, regardless of the winning party, presumably because it reduces uncertainty. Annual stock market gains the year after the election have averaged 11% since 1928.
The conventional wisdom has long been that stocks do better under Democratic administrations than Republican administrations. That is true if you measure the years from the time they take office until leaving office. However, if you lag that analysis by one year for policy implementation, the Republicans out-perform the Democrats, albeit by a smaller amount. Bottom Line: It doesn't really matter! Try telling a politician that . . .
1. The S&P will rise 8.1% to 2150 over the next twelve months. Asian stock markets will rise 12.0%, and European will rise 14.2% during that time.
2. The fear that a Chinese slowdown is a risk to global growth is "over-stated." They estimate China's GDP growth at 6.8% this year and 6.4% next year, compared to the U.S. at 2.5% this year and 2.4% next year.
3. The dollar will continue to strengthen over the next twelve months -- 4.9% against the pound and a whopping 15.3% against the Euro. However, the yen will appreciate 7.4% against the dollar.
4. Oil will rise 23.9% over the next twelve months, and gold will fall another 7.3%.
5. The Fed will increase interest rates in December, not September.
In addition, they took an interesting look at the relationship between "politics and portfolios," finding the stock market enjoys a "glad it's over" bounce after each presidential election, regardless of the winning party, presumably because it reduces uncertainty. Annual stock market gains the year after the election have averaged 11% since 1928.
The conventional wisdom has long been that stocks do better under Democratic administrations than Republican administrations. That is true if you measure the years from the time they take office until leaving office. However, if you lag that analysis by one year for policy implementation, the Republicans out-perform the Democrats, albeit by a smaller amount. Bottom Line: It doesn't really matter! Try telling a politician that . . .
