The current turbulence in the stock market has not been following the conventional script. Does that mean we are facing a potential market collapse? No! There is no financial crisis on the horizon. If anything, U.S. banks have TOO MUCH capital, not too little.
But, the current turbulence is slightly different from the normal garden-variety bear market that precedes the normal garden-variety economic recession. The economic data for the U.S. remains remarkably good.
The difference is that we have never experienced a normal garden-variety bear market in such a highly globalized world. For the first time, it is not international news, such as a war, that drives down the U.S. stock market. Instead, it is slowing global growth, not slowing national growth. Further, there is a free-floating anxiety that global growth is actually negative, meaning a real global recession might be possible. Possible - yes, anything is possible. Probable - no!
Making it more difficult for analysts is the lack of quality information about economic conditions in other countries. Regardless of what conspiracy-theorists in Congress imagine, the U.S. economic data is believable. On the other hand, Chinese economic data is notoriously skewed for political purposes. Naturally, this lack of "trustable info" increases the one thing Wall Street hates the most . . . uncertainty!
How long will it take Wall Street to figure out the sky is NOT falling? I don't expect that before the holiday season begins in late November, when we normally enjoy a "Santa Claus rally," which is my favorite holiday present. Your's too, I'll bet?
But, the current turbulence is slightly different from the normal garden-variety bear market that precedes the normal garden-variety economic recession. The economic data for the U.S. remains remarkably good.
The difference is that we have never experienced a normal garden-variety bear market in such a highly globalized world. For the first time, it is not international news, such as a war, that drives down the U.S. stock market. Instead, it is slowing global growth, not slowing national growth. Further, there is a free-floating anxiety that global growth is actually negative, meaning a real global recession might be possible. Possible - yes, anything is possible. Probable - no!
Making it more difficult for analysts is the lack of quality information about economic conditions in other countries. Regardless of what conspiracy-theorists in Congress imagine, the U.S. economic data is believable. On the other hand, Chinese economic data is notoriously skewed for political purposes. Naturally, this lack of "trustable info" increases the one thing Wall Street hates the most . . . uncertainty!
How long will it take Wall Street to figure out the sky is NOT falling? I don't expect that before the holiday season begins in late November, when we normally enjoy a "Santa Claus rally," which is my favorite holiday present. Your's too, I'll bet?
