Many people feel bewildered when economists start talking. It's the "drinking from a fire hose" problem. Who can absorb all those numbers, data points, and graphs immediately? It is not news to economists that we can confuse any situation by merely adding more data.
Years ago, I attended a three-day course in Washington for a deep-dive into economic measurement data produced by the Federal government, which ignored data produced by the many universities, trade groups, and other governments. In a lighter moment (there weren't many), one professor suggested that only one economic report really matters, i.e., the monthly "Jobs Report" published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). He said, if the economy is producing enough jobs, nothing else really matters.
The economy is producing enough jobs!
Yesterday, the BLS reported 242 thousand jobs were created last month. This easily surpassed Wall Street's expectation of 185 thousand. Not only that, the two previous months produced 30 thousand more jobs than previously reported. Over the past twelve months, the economy has produced two MILLION new jobs!
Interestingly, the unemployment rate of 4.9% was unchanged. If we produced so many jobs, why didn't the rate fall? Because the labor force is expanding! Over the last three months, more than 500 thousand disillusioned people decided the job market was finally strong enough that even they might have a chance of getting a job after all. The Labor Force Participation Rate (I know, another data point) increased to 62.9%, which is up .5% in just three months. That's real progress, believe it or not. The U-6 level of unemployment (another darn data point) among the disillusioned and the part-timers who want to be full-timers, dropped below 10% for the first time since the Great Recession.
The economy is producing enough jobs . . . or, it was last month anyway.
Years ago, I attended a three-day course in Washington for a deep-dive into economic measurement data produced by the Federal government, which ignored data produced by the many universities, trade groups, and other governments. In a lighter moment (there weren't many), one professor suggested that only one economic report really matters, i.e., the monthly "Jobs Report" published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). He said, if the economy is producing enough jobs, nothing else really matters.
The economy is producing enough jobs!
Yesterday, the BLS reported 242 thousand jobs were created last month. This easily surpassed Wall Street's expectation of 185 thousand. Not only that, the two previous months produced 30 thousand more jobs than previously reported. Over the past twelve months, the economy has produced two MILLION new jobs!
Interestingly, the unemployment rate of 4.9% was unchanged. If we produced so many jobs, why didn't the rate fall? Because the labor force is expanding! Over the last three months, more than 500 thousand disillusioned people decided the job market was finally strong enough that even they might have a chance of getting a job after all. The Labor Force Participation Rate (I know, another data point) increased to 62.9%, which is up .5% in just three months. That's real progress, believe it or not. The U-6 level of unemployment (another darn data point) among the disillusioned and the part-timers who want to be full-timers, dropped below 10% for the first time since the Great Recession.
The economy is producing enough jobs . . . or, it was last month anyway.
