Charlie Cook and Greg Valliere are two of Washington's best known political pundits, and I have heard them speak at several conferences. (I even had the pleasure of having lunch with Greg in Scottsdale a few years ago and found him to be a genuinely nice guy.)
Earlier this week, I attended their lecture. In no particular order, here are some of the things I heard:
1. As much as Washington hates Ted Cruz personally, they fear Donald Trump even more professionally.
2. The Republican convention will give the nomination to Cruz.
3. Cruz will lose the general election to Hillary Clinton but not by much.
4. Cook believes Cruz had already decided to run for President, when he filed to run for the Senate.
5. Cook doesn't believe Hillary will be indicted.
6. The most important address to her is not 1400 Pennsylvania Avenue but 1400 New York Avenue, where the FBI investigation is being done. (Coincidently, this is next to my old office at 1500 New York.)
7. If Hillary is indicted, Joe Biden is "tan, relaxed, & ready."
8. Because there are more Democrats than Republicans, the Republicans need Independents more than Democrats need them.
9. Humorously, Valliere said he hoped Inauguration Day is very windy if Trump is elected.
10. No chance of Republicans losing the House, due to gerrymandering.
11. Hillary has more testosterone than Obama, meaning she is more warlike.
12. The hot social issue for Republicans is shifting from gay issues to the heroin problem??
13. Because ten Republican senators up for reelection are from states carried by Obama, there is a chance they could lose control of the Senate.
14. Cruz will have to pick an "establishment" type as a running mate.
15. Polls are less meaningful now, due to the rapidly rising non-response rate.
16. The most amazing thing about this election cycle is the increase in the energized voter base. Because Congressional leadership (both Republican & Democrat) were indifferent to the falling approval rating of the "do-nothing-but-obstruct-Congress," the voter base became very irritated.
Earlier this week, I attended their lecture. In no particular order, here are some of the things I heard:
1. As much as Washington hates Ted Cruz personally, they fear Donald Trump even more professionally.
2. The Republican convention will give the nomination to Cruz.
3. Cruz will lose the general election to Hillary Clinton but not by much.
4. Cook believes Cruz had already decided to run for President, when he filed to run for the Senate.
5. Cook doesn't believe Hillary will be indicted.
6. The most important address to her is not 1400 Pennsylvania Avenue but 1400 New York Avenue, where the FBI investigation is being done. (Coincidently, this is next to my old office at 1500 New York.)
7. If Hillary is indicted, Joe Biden is "tan, relaxed, & ready."
8. Because there are more Democrats than Republicans, the Republicans need Independents more than Democrats need them.
9. Humorously, Valliere said he hoped Inauguration Day is very windy if Trump is elected.
10. No chance of Republicans losing the House, due to gerrymandering.
11. Hillary has more testosterone than Obama, meaning she is more warlike.
12. The hot social issue for Republicans is shifting from gay issues to the heroin problem??
13. Because ten Republican senators up for reelection are from states carried by Obama, there is a chance they could lose control of the Senate.
14. Cruz will have to pick an "establishment" type as a running mate.
15. Polls are less meaningful now, due to the rapidly rising non-response rate.
16. The most amazing thing about this election cycle is the increase in the energized voter base. Because Congressional leadership (both Republican & Democrat) were indifferent to the falling approval rating of the "do-nothing-but-obstruct-Congress," the voter base became very irritated.
