Saturday, September 30, 2017

The Perpetual Life of Alarmists

There has never been a day in my life that some intelligent person was not predicting the "sky is falling" -- the economy is crashing and you should buy gold.  For many years, I just assumed a given percentage of any society is allocated to quacks.  Now, I'm starting to see a common denominator between many of them, i.e., Ayn Rand.

Make no mistake:  I loved reading her books and think I have read everything she ever wrote.  I was taken by the need of each individual to stand up for his/her beliefs.  However, she also wrote extensively of how central government is never to be trusted, as you would expect from any Russian refugee like her.  Sinister black helicopters hover everywhere in her world.  I never accepted that vision, as it assumed the central government was more competent than anything I had ever experienced.  Apparently, many of her followers did accept that.

As a Russian refugee, her economic sympathies naturally lay with the Austrian School, that any government action merely clogs the gears of free enterprise.  So, if the central government is evil and is significantly involved in the economy, I guess it should not be surprising that Rand disciples always believe the sky really is falling.

The latest in a long line of doomsayers is Doug Casey, who describes himself as an anarcho-capitalist or someone who advocates extreme self-reliance, unfettered capitalism, and abolishment of almost the entire government.  He has long embraced gold and recently embraced bitcoin and other crypto-currencies, which are free from governmental manipulation.  He makes his living selling books about the coming collapse of western civilization, revealing a deep belief in both Austrian economics and in Ayn Rand.

He also has long advocated that Americans unleash themselves from America, by investing assets overseas and having multiple passports.  I have long distrusted anybody practicing in this area of finance.  Run -- from anybody recommending "asset protection trusts" from any island-nation!  There is something sleazy to selling passports in exotic places.  Last week, I was offered a valid passport from the island-nation of Saint Lucia for $145 thousand.

Oddly, his belief in "Black Swans" sounds more like a disciple of Keynesian economics (see Minsky's Moment) than Austrian economics.  But, he remains true to Rand's belief that the government of the greatest country in history exists for the sole purpose of repressing its people.

If you like Casey's alarmism, then buy his books.  If you believe Casey's alarmrism, especially in the foreseeable short-term future, then run for your life!