I have been a member of the National Association of Business Economists for many years and always read their quarterly survey of members. Here are some of their latest forecasts:
1. There has been a minor slowing of economic activity. Despite a weak Q1, they expect Q2 to bounce back with a 3.1% growth rate. Full-year GDP growth is estimated at 2.2% this year and 2.4% next year. Both estimates are down a minor 0.1% from the last survey.
2. We will continue producing about 170 thousand jobs each month, and inflation will remain quiet.
3. Nine out of ten economists believe there is less than a 25% probability of a recession this year, while three out of four believe there is less than a 25% probability next year.
4. The Fed will raise interest rates twice this year and three times next year.
5. By a large majority, members assume the Trump Administration will be successful in both tax reform and infrastructure spending by late next year and will be good for the economy, but the effects will not be visible before Congressional elections next year.
Any questions?
1. There has been a minor slowing of economic activity. Despite a weak Q1, they expect Q2 to bounce back with a 3.1% growth rate. Full-year GDP growth is estimated at 2.2% this year and 2.4% next year. Both estimates are down a minor 0.1% from the last survey.
2. We will continue producing about 170 thousand jobs each month, and inflation will remain quiet.
3. Nine out of ten economists believe there is less than a 25% probability of a recession this year, while three out of four believe there is less than a 25% probability next year.
4. The Fed will raise interest rates twice this year and three times next year.
5. By a large majority, members assume the Trump Administration will be successful in both tax reform and infrastructure spending by late next year and will be good for the economy, but the effects will not be visible before Congressional elections next year.
Any questions?
