It is hard to remember so many important news events happening at the same time. We're going to establish a no-fly zone over Libya, a move advocated by France, who does not have a reputation as a war-like nation. Did you hear that the protests in Bahrain were brutally surpressed by the Saudis? Gas at $4/gallon is a certainty. At the same time, the G-7 quickly agreed to intervention in the price of the Yen, something that hasn't happened since 2000. Last night, China raised interest rates again, to tamp down inflation, a move that normally tamps down the world stock markets. Importantly, there may be "stability" in Japan's reactor disaster, which is big news, even if premature.
Yesterday, the Dow rose 161 points. At this hour, the futures market is predicting the Dow will open up about 75 points. I suspect the market thinks a lot of news is good news. I don't!
There is a huge sense of relief when the sky does NOT fall, which results in a Relief Rally. (Besides, the market is usually positive before "triple-witching" Fridays, which is today.) I've been predicting a 4-8% decline in the market, and we are there. But, my prediction was without any regard to the trifecta of tragedies in Japan and their combined impact on the world economy. As Robert Frost would say, there are "miles to go before I sleep."
