The market got two pleasant surprises yesterday. First, consumer income rose much more than expected in January. Second, consumer spending rose much less than expected. While the consumption-based economy that is still the American operating model is dependent upon consumers spending on goods and services, it depends on a healthy consumer.
With income up and spending down, either the savings rate increased or consumer debt decreased. Either way, it is more evidence of the deleveraging of America - a very good sign indeed.
Buoyed by this, the market rallied, with the Dow closing up almost 96 points. It is now up 5.42% for the first two months of the year. In the last 71 years, that has happened 26 times, when the market was up both January and February. Only once has the market then ended the year down. If I were a betting man, I'd bet the market will end the year up. But, I'm an investor instead and have been predicting an up year for months already. When gamblers and investors agree, it must be Nirvana?
