The first trading day after the disaster in Japan was better than expected, with the Dow dropping only 51 points. There was a good rally going into the close, but volume was quite weak all day. Most investors are too frightened or confused to make bets right now.
Today's light loss is the good news. The bad news is that this is not over. It will be a few more days or even weeks for the uncertainty to wane, before the market can really recover. The market is now down about 4% from its February high. Another 4% and I'll be looking for the bull market to return.
Today's losers were nuclear power companies and insurance re-insurers. If you are an aggressive "bottom-feeder," you will want to start studying those companies. Solar power companies were definite winners today, but that technology producing intermittent energy cannot replace nuclear without government subsidies, which looks unlikely in this political climate.
If you're in a bullish mood and think the danger is behind us, then think about the Libyan crisis and fear of oil disruptions. Oh, and don't forget the European summit this weekend provided only a weak back-stop solution to that crisis. Maybe, we just need a bigger plate?
More seriously, while we are in a bearish market, I still feel confident that 2011 will be bullish, even if March is a loser . . . a tragic loser!
