Sunday, December 7, 2014

Sunday Thoughts

Construction is a pro-cyclical industry.  That means it makes the business cycle more pronounced.  It makes good times better and bad times worse.  Right now, commercial construction is doing well.  Residential construction is limping along.  But, one area of construction is a drag on the economy.

Construction of churches has fallen to the lowest level since 1957.  It is down 80% from its peak construction level in 2002.  It totaled a mere $3.5 billion in 2012.

Some explain that churches are now more concerned with their ministry than their buildings.  Certainly, that might explain part of it.  Of course, there are other things going on as well.  The percentage of the population that never attend church was 25.3% in 2012, up dramatically from a mere 5.1% in 1972.  Financial giving has also changed dramatically.  Religious groups received half of all giving in 1990, which has now fallen to only one-third.  They simply don't have as much money to build new facilities.  They are a smaller portion of the GDP.

Rather than looking at this change from a religious standpoint, it may be more helpful to look at it from an economics standpoint, which is unrelentingly honest.  Benjamin Graham was the father of value investing and the mentor of Warren Buffet.  He famously argued that, in the long run, the marketplace is a weighing machine, i.e., determining the substance of an idea or product.  I think he would argue that marketplace for traditional religious thought and practices finds that it weighs less today than it used to weigh.  The marketplace is sending a disturbing message to religious leaders but what is it?

In the economy, if a product is not selling well, the seller has to make a decision:  (1) stop selling the product, (2) lower the price, (3) change the merchandising, including advertising campaign, or (4) change the product to meet changing consumer needs or preferences.

Ask your rabbi, priest, or preacher what he or she thinks.  Then, tell them to really help the economy by building a giant new building . . .