Self-esteemed investment bank Goldman Sachs has released their outlook for next year. In no particular order, they expect:
1. The S&P will rise to 2,100 over the next three months and stay there for the rest of the year.
2. The European stock markets will rise 12.3% by 2015 year-end.
3. Interest rates will start moving up quite soon, with ten-year Treasuries going from 2.1% to 2.5% within three months and ending the year at 2.85%.
4. The dollar will rise 7.8% against the euro. (Think European vacation!)
5. The dollar will rises 9.5% against the yen. (Think Japanese vacation????)
6. Oil will recover within three months, with Brent Crude hitting $85/bbl before stabilizing.
7. Gold will continue falling, reaching $1,050 by year-end.
8. GDP in the U.S. will rise from 2.2% this year to 3.1% next year, which is impressive.
9. China's GDP will continue to decelerate slowly, dropping from 7.3% this year and 7.0% next year.
10. "The geopolitical condition is often quite difficult to quantify and unpleasant to summarize. Although turmoil in Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East bears watching in 2015, the majority of geopolitical hotspots are, in our view, regionally tethered and of limited broader economic consequence."
Reflecting the respect I have for their research department, I can see the logic of all these predictions except #3 above. With the high level of uncertainty and nagging level of U-6 unemployment and Yellen's dovish nature, I cannot see interest rates rising so soon. It is also surprising to me that they expect strong GDP growth of 3.1% but without a more significant increase in the stock market.
1. The S&P will rise to 2,100 over the next three months and stay there for the rest of the year.
2. The European stock markets will rise 12.3% by 2015 year-end.
3. Interest rates will start moving up quite soon, with ten-year Treasuries going from 2.1% to 2.5% within three months and ending the year at 2.85%.
4. The dollar will rise 7.8% against the euro. (Think European vacation!)
5. The dollar will rises 9.5% against the yen. (Think Japanese vacation????)
6. Oil will recover within three months, with Brent Crude hitting $85/bbl before stabilizing.
7. Gold will continue falling, reaching $1,050 by year-end.
8. GDP in the U.S. will rise from 2.2% this year to 3.1% next year, which is impressive.
9. China's GDP will continue to decelerate slowly, dropping from 7.3% this year and 7.0% next year.
10. "The geopolitical condition is often quite difficult to quantify and unpleasant to summarize. Although turmoil in Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East bears watching in 2015, the majority of geopolitical hotspots are, in our view, regionally tethered and of limited broader economic consequence."
Reflecting the respect I have for their research department, I can see the logic of all these predictions except #3 above. With the high level of uncertainty and nagging level of U-6 unemployment and Yellen's dovish nature, I cannot see interest rates rising so soon. It is also surprising to me that they expect strong GDP growth of 3.1% but without a more significant increase in the stock market.
